湖北省林地变更及驱动力分析

Driving Force Analysis of Forestland Change in Hubei Province

摘要:

摘要：本研究基于多元遥感卫星影像数据、湖北省2010年林地落界数据和其他相关数据，以地理信息系统为处理平台，解译出湖北省2012年林地分布图，得到2010-2012年湖北省各市州区的林地间动态转移矩阵，并结合全省各市州区的8个主要社会经济因子，对湖北省2010～2012年林地变更情况及其驱动机制进行了研究。研究结果表明：（1）农村人口（X8）是导致有林地变更（Y1）和其他林地变更（Y4）的主要社会驱动力，第一产业总值（X3）是导致疏林地变更（Y2）的主要社会驱动力，第三产业总值（X5）是导致灌木林地变更（Y3）的主要社会驱动力。（2）在对有林地变更进行主成分分析中，命名城市发展因子F1（受国内生产总值X2、第一产业总值X3、第二产业总值X4、第三产业总值X5、基础建设投资X6主要影响）及农村发展因子F2（受年末总人口X1、农村人均年收入X7、农村人口X8主要影响），得到有林地变更模型为Y1= -0.644F1+ 0.742F2。从该模型可知有林地变更面积与城市发展成反比，与农村发展成正比。

Abstract:

Abstract:The study which took the interpretation of the map of Hubei Province forest distribution is based on multiple satellite remote sensing image data, forestland boundary data in 2010 and other spatial data. Combined with 8 social economic factors, the study analyzed the forestland change between 2010 and 2012 and its driving force mechanism. The results showed that:(1) Rural population （X8）is the main social driving force of woodland change（Y1） and other forestland change （Y4）,The primary industry gross（X3）is the main social driving force of sparse woodland change （Y2）.The tertiary industry gross （X5）is the main social driving force of shrub land change （Y3）.（2）Principle component analysis was taken on woodland change. Based on that, the factor F1 main influenced by gross domestic product （X2）, the first industry gross （X3）, the secondary industry gross （X4）, the tertiary industry gross （X5） and the infrastructure investment（X6）is named as the urban development factor and F2 main influenced by population （X1）,rural per capital income （X7） and proportion of rural population （X8）is named as the rural development factor, and the woodland change model is Y1=-0.644F1+ 0.742F2 which can be found that the area of changes in woodland is inversely proportional to urban development and proportional to rural development.