四川省桤柏混交林潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas for Mixed Alnus cremastogyne and Cupressus funebris Stand in Sichuan Province

摘要:

基于 2017 年森林资源一类清查数据，结合气候、土壤及海拔等环境因子，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）对四川省桤柏混交林潜在适生区进行预测与分析。结果表明：（1）MaxEnt 模型 AUC 平均值为 0.930，预测结果非常好。（2）影响四川省桤柏混交林适生区范围的主要生态因子为海拔、等温性、气温年较差、最湿月降水量、平均气温日较差、最暖月最高温，6 个因子累计贡献率达 96.0%。（3）四川省桤柏混交林潜在适生区面积 105172km2，占四川省总面积的 21.64%，主要分布在四川盆地及盆周区域。其中，高适生区面积 15242km2，主要集中分布在四川盆地盆北及盆东丘陵及低山区；中适生区面积 42982km2，主要集中分布在盆中丘陵区及盆周低山丘陵区；低适生区面积 46948km2，主要分布在盆地南部丘陵及低山区。本研究结果可为四川省桤柏混交林经营规划和可持续经营提供科学依据。

Abstract:

Using the forest resource inventory data of 2017 as sample points; the MaxEnt model was applied to predict and analyze the potential suitable habitat for the mixed forest of Alnus cremastogyne and Cupressus funebris in Sichuan Province; considering environmental factors such as climate; soil; and elevation.The results showed that: (1）The average AUC value of the MaxEnt model was 0.930; indicating excellent prediction results. (2）The main ecological factors influencing the suitable habitat range of the mixed forest in Sichuan Province were elevation; isothermality; annual temperature range; precipitation of the wettest month; diurnal temperature range; and maximum temperature of the warmest month; with a cumulative contribution rate of 96.0%. (3）The potential suitable habitat distribution of the mixed forest in Sichuan Province mainly lies in the Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas; with a total potential suitable area of 105 172 km2; accounting for 21.64% of the total area of Sichuan Province. Among them; the high suitable area covers 15 242 km2; mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern hills and low mountains of the Sichuan Basin; the moderate suitable area covers 42 982 km2; mainly concentrated in the hilly areas in the central basin and the low mountainous regions around the basin; the low suitable area covers 46 948 km2; mainly distributed in the southern hilly and low mountainous regions of the basin.The results of this study can provide scientific basis for the management planning and sustainable operation of the mixed forest of Alnus cremastogyne and Cupressus funebris in Sichuan Province.